On 8 October 2026, the World Trade Organization raised its forecast for world merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, up from 1.9% in March, in its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics update. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the figures “reflect trade resilience in action”, Xinhua reported. The WTO credited supply chains that have adapted and strong investment linked to artificial intelligence.
What changes
Services are moving the other way. The WTO cut its 2026 forecast for commercial services trade to 3.3% from 4.8%, citing the Middle East conflict. For 2027 it expects goods trade to grow 4.1% and services 6.4%, with the services rebound depending on how soon the conflict is resolved. It sees world GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.
AI-enabling goods grew 67% in value in the first half of 2026. They made up 14.8% of world merchandise trade and accounted for 47% of its growth. The gaps between regions are wide: Asia’s goods exports are forecast to rise 9.9% in 2026 and North America’s 5.7%, while Europe’s slip 0.1% and the Middle East’s fall 17.2%. Travel services exports are expected to grow 0.2% and transport 0.9%.
What it means for founders
The headline is strong, but the growth sits in a narrow band of products and routes. Businesses in the AI hardware supply chain, and exporters in Asia, are best placed. Firms that rely on travel, tourism or shipping through the Gulf face a weaker year, and flat European exports point to soft demand there. The WTO names the Middle East conflict, the gap between crude and refined oil prices, and a possible slowdown in AI investment as the main risks, so the forecast could change quickly.
What to do now
- Work out how much of your revenue depends on Middle East routes or customers, and plan alternatives.
- If you sell into Asia, review whether demand there justifies more sales effort in 2027.
- Test your 2027 plan against a case where AI-driven demand cools.
Sources: WTO, Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Update, October 2026; Xinhua, WTO raises 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9 pct