On 13 October 2026, the International Monetary Fund published its World Economic Outlook, titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices”. It forecasts global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a little above the 3.0% in its July update, according to Fortune, and a rebound to 3.4% in 2027. Global inflation is projected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.
What changes
The forecasts assume oil averages $96 a barrel this year, close to 41% higher than last year, and that oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume by March. The IMF expects the US to grow 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, the euro area 1.1% and 1.2%, China 4.5% this year and India 7%, still the fastest of the major economies. Emerging and developing economies slow to 3.7% in 2026 before recovering to 4.4% in 2027. The Middle East and Central Asia region is expected to shrink this year.
Growth is also more concentrated. Fortune reports that 32 countries account for 95% of global growth, against 54 in April. The Fund says energy importers outside the technology supply chain face the hardest outlook.
What it means for founders
The world economy is growing, but unevenly, and inflation is moving the wrong way. Businesses selling into the US, India or Asia’s technology supply chain have firmer demand to work with. Those relying on Europe, or on energy-importing markets, should plan for slower sales and higher costs. The IMF lists the downside risks as wider conflict, a reassessment of expectations around AI, renewed trade tensions and government debt. On the upside, it points to stronger AI investment, productivity gains from AI and an easing of tensions.
What to do now
- Use the IMF’s country figures as a base case for 2027 planning, and add a downside case built on higher oil.
- Review prices and supplier contracts for exposure to energy and fuel costs.
- If most of your pipeline sits in one slow-growing region, set a target for at least one faster-growing market.
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026; Fortune, IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%